PLL Picks: Playoff Edition

PLL Group Play has ended, so it’s on to the playoffs. With a week of group play games under out belts, we have a better feeling for who the top teams are, who the weaker teams are, and what we can expect from certain clubs every time out. With a little more information at our fingertips, we can make smarter bets. So that’s what I’m going to be doing for the playoffs. In the group stage, if you’ve been following myself or Pro Lacrosse Talk on twitter, you’ll see I picked each game every day, both straight up and against the spread. I finished the group play stage 11–4 on picks, not too bad if you ask me.

Of course, a record can’t tell you everything, and if we’re talking gambling, what it really comes down to is if you’re making money or not. We can track success in that regard by betting units on games. If you’re new to the gambling scene, units can mean different things to different people. If you’re Joe Tsai and you have a net worth of a bazillion dollars, a unit might be quite different than if you’re, oh I don’t know, me. The number of units wagered on a particular bet can tell you the confidence with which I’m making that bet. At the end of this thing, we’ll know just how much money was won or (more likely) lost based on my picks. I’ll be starting myself at 10 units and trying not to rapidly squander them.

The opening lines for the Tuesday games are available on Fox Bet. Typically, I will be using DraftKings as they are the partner of the PLL for the Championship Series, but at the time writing the lines were not yet available on DK Sportsbook.

Game 1: Chaos vs Chrome (-2.5).

O/U 21.5. Moneyline is Chrome -200, Chaos +165.

This game is a rematch, although frankly the scoreline and gameplay was the least talked about part of that game. Trying to account for how the Chaos will deal with a second round of talking from Matt Gaudet, who absolutely rattled them in game one, is difficult to do. In game one the Chaos, despite having a loaded offensive roster on paper, managed to take just 29 shots. Tommy Kelly struggled facing off, going just 7–24. Connor Fields and Curtis Dickson each had hat tricks, which is something the Chaos will need to happen. Since that opening day 13–9 loss, the Chaos haven’t improved much. Kelly is facing off at just 33% for the season. Jarrod Neumann, last year’s DPOY, struggled trying to guard Jordan Wolf in their first game, and hasn’t been very good since. Fields was shut out by the Whipsnakes, and had just one point against Redwoods. “Bomb Squad” of last year has hit a single a two pointer in the Series. The Chrome, on the other hand, have been steady, methodical, and productive. Their goal totals in their four games is 13, 12, 12, 13, averaging a tidy 12.5 goals per outing, second best in the league. They have a pair of double-digit scorers at attack in Wolf and Guterding. John Galloway has returned to his Team USA form after what you could call a down year for him last year, backstopping a much-improved defense led by Jesse Bernhardt, Ryland Rees, and Mike Manley. The one place you’d like the Chrome to be better is at the faceoff spot, but going against a weak unit like Chaos should give Chrome an edge.

The Bet: Chrome do play plenty of close games. Going 3–1, two of their wins, and their loss, were all one goal games. Their lone game with a spread was against, you guessed it, Chaos, where they won by four. Still, eight of the 14 group play games were decided by one goal. Five decided by 3 or more. The Chaos are 0–4, but these teams play close games. I don’t love this game to be honest, but I’ll put 1 unit on Chaos +2.5 to cover.

O/U: The Chaos average just 8 goals a game and, dating back to last season, hasn’t reached double digits in their last 7 outings. Their offense looks stuck in the mud at times, or just disorganized. Teams have keyed on denying two’s in transition, and Sergio Salcido, who they traded for, feels underutilized in the 6v6. Chrome is averaged 12.5 goals per game, and did that against the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ranked defenses. The Chrome hitting double digits seems like a lock, the Chaos not so much. Unders have been the play for the series, and I think it stays that way in this one, but I’ll only go .5 units on the under.

Game 2: Redwoods (-1.5) vs Waterdogs.

O/U 21.5 Moneyline is Redwoods -133, Waterdogs +110

The Woods and Dogs didn’t play each other in group play, so we get a fresh matchup here. The Redwoods opened with a beating at the hands of the Whipsnakes (there’s a lot of that going around). They then lost to the Chrome by a goal in a game where they looked more concerned with hitting Matt Gaudet than playing the Chrome. From there they rattled off two tough wins against Chaos and Atlas, which while not necessarily impressive wins saw them playing much better. The defense is still solid, holding opposing attack groups to very limited production. Opposing midfields, however, can do some work against the Woods. The Atlas got 10 points from their midfield against the Woods, Chrome got 13, and the Whips got 9. The Waterdogs can roll some production out at the midfield in the form of a health Zach Currier, possibly Ben Reeves out of the box, two-point threat Connor Kelly, and underrated Ben MacIntosh. Woods have also struggled facing off, with Peyton Smith facing off under 40% and Greg Puskuldjian under 30%. Jake Withers and Drew Simoneau have been solid for the Dogs, and they should have an edge there. The Woods have been feasting offensively lately via Sergio Perkovic from range, as he has more twos than some teams right now. The Waterdogs, however, have only given up a single two bomb to this point, and it was a bit of a freak play where a pass made its way in from distance. The Woods road to success here might not be with twos, and that’s scary. If Perkovic isn’t shooting a two, he actually has a pretty terrible shooting percentage. They’ll likely put Garrett Epple on Kieran McArdle in hopes of erasing him, and poling Currier, then seeing if the rest of the Dogs can win matchups against a stout Woods group.

The Bet: This could be a grind. A wildcard here is the goalie situation for Waterdogs, as both Cipriano and Deluca have seen some time. If it’s an off day or the Waterdogs defense is out of sorts early, the Woods can make you pay two goals at a time. I think Waterdogs get extra possessions, but have trouble generating consistent offense. They stay in this game, and have a shot to win outright. I’m going with .5 units on Waterdogs +1.5.

O/U: The Woods hit four twos against the Atlas, but totaled 11 goals. If the two isn’t going, the total could be low here. Waterdogs have failed to hit double digits just once, but that came against an Archers defense near the bottom of the league in scoring average. I feel good about the under in this one, 1 unit.

Game 3: Archers (-1.5) vs Atlas.

O/U 22.5, Moneyline is Archers -154, Atlas +130

Something about this just feels off to me. Archers scored the third most goals in the league. Part of me thinks if they wanted to, they could slam the pedal to the floor and play at light speed, but they look plenty comfortable dissecting people in the 6v6. Grant Ament is pretty much a lock for Rookie of the Year, and carves up defenses that are weak off ball. Tom Schreiber is still looking to punish teams who make any sort of mistake out of the sub game, or mental error on the defensive end. Ryan Ambler has broken out this year a bit as well, emerging as a serious threat dodging from the low wings or as a spot shooter on the lefty side of the field. All of that is horrible, horrible news for Atlas. Jack Concannon and Cade Van Raaphorst have been the only things keeping this defense in games at times, even with Durkin back. The organization and communication off ball has left the Atlas exposed multiple times per game, and an offense like the Archers will find that and punish it in the blink of an eye. Last year, this defense was protected by Trevor Baptiste winning extra possessions, but this year he’s just barely over 50%. The key in the first game between this teams was Bryan Costabile, who had a coming out party to the tune of 5 points on four goals, one of which was a two. He won’t be sneaking up on anyone in this game. The Atlas best chance here is a vintage Rob Pannell game, but he’s really struggled with his shooting (13% is not good). Even if they get one, Buczek and Rabil are both shooting in the single digits right now. They also need Durkin to bully Ament into mistakes and turnovers, but that is a very tall order.

The Bet: Has to be Archers. Before they lost to the Whipsnakes in the final game of group play, this was a team talked about as a possible favorite for the crown. 1.5 just isn’t enough wood for me to take the Atlas here. Could the Atlas pull of the upset? Maybe, but I just don’t see it. We’re due for a Marcus Holman breakout and offensive showcase from this group. 1 unit on Archers -1.5

O/U: OK, I know the trend has been unders this tournament. The numbers have been set pretty low by PLL standards and yet they continue to hit. But you know who has the highest scores against average in the league? Atlas, surrendering 11.8 per game. You know who has the second highest? Archers, 11.5 per game. That’s a bit inflated by the Whips hanging 17, and that’s noteworthy. But the first time these teams played the total was 21. The Archers hit the post 6 times in the first half of that game and there were quality scoring opportunities every time down. This could have been a massive goal total, and we were about a foot away. Those posts are goals this time. .5 units on the over.

To Recap:

1 unit on Chaos +2.5, .5 units on the under 21.5

.5 units on Waterdogs +1.5, 1 unit on under 21.5

1 unit on Archers -1.5, .5 units on over 22.5