PLL Playoff Picks: The Semifinals
Welcome back, fellow lax gamblers. To start, a recap of my first round picks:
We started at 10 units. I risked 4.5 units total in round one. I lost 1.5 units, and my winning picks total payout was 5.76 units, so we netted out ahead. After a week, we went from 10 units to 11.26 units. We’re in the black, folks. Barely, but we’re there.
With only two games to pick from, there’s a little less action. There are, however, quite a few prop bets available on Fox Bet, so let’s make this interesting and pick a few of those. The games:
GAME 1: Archers vs Chaos
Spread: Archers -2.5 (+150), Chaos +2.5 (-182)
O/U: 22.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Archers -250, Chaos +200
Chaos made some massive changes in their opening round matchup with the Chrome and it paid off bigtime. Austin Staats had been stifled, looking uncomfortable playing out of the box. The move to sit Connor Fields and get Staats into his natural position at attack had this group looking like the offensive behemoth that experts thought it could become. Speaking of potent offenses, the Archers are a thing. While they slowed a bit after racing out of the gates against the Atlas, they have the personnel to run away with games. They could try and beat the Chaos at their own game, using two man play with Schreiber and Ambler to create chances, or snappy ball movement from their attack to punish late rotations or defensive mistakes. I’m much more excited for this game than I would have been about 3 days ago.
The Bet: Archers may be loaded on offense, but they still tend to play close games. In fact, they’ve yet to win by more than 2 goals. The new look Chaos must have been absolutely strutting through practice with a confidence that comes from upsetting the two seed. I’m not convinced they can pull off a second massive upset, which this would be, but I think they have a chance with their new look offense to stay close and competitive. If the SSDMs can handle the Archers midfield (big if) and Riorden has another big day (he may need another 20 saves), and Tommy Kelly can keep faceoffs around 50/50, the Chaos have a chance to win. If all three of those things don’t happen, they don’t. But I still think they have a chance to cover if only a couple of those things happen. .5 units on Chaos +2.5.
O/U: Until the Chaos played that game against Chrome I would have absolutely hammered the under. Now I’m not so sure. I don’t know what conversations have been had with Connor Fields, or if they’ll try to find a way to get him on the field, but frankly they just lit up the Chrome for 19 goals without him and looked like a well oiled machine doing so. I’d run that group back out there again until someone can actually stop it. It’s also possible that Jack Rowlett is still out, and the SSDMs of Chaos have been under constant assault all summer. The players coming at those SSDMs today happen to include the best midfielder in the world. The under has been the hot play all season but I’m going to take an over here, and for a full unit.
GAME 2: Whipsnakes vs Redwoods
Spread: Whipsnakes -2.5 (-133) over Redwoods (+110)
O/U: 21.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Whipsnakes -333, Redwoods +260
It’s really hard to find a way to bet the Redwoods here. The Whipsnakes are a wagon, there’s no denying it. And when it came time to really play for something, we saw reigning MVP Matt Rambo absolutely take over, breaking the single game assist record in the process. Joe Nardella continues to play like the man that will get the MVP award from his teammate after this season. The Woods shuffled the lineup, putting Brent Adams at attack, and may have more surprises in store. It’ll take an extraordinary effort from their defensive group to deal with this Whips team.
The Bet: I’m going to take Whipsnakes -2.5. The Redwoods continue to really struggle facing off, as neither Smith nor Puskuldjian has had much success all season. And they’re taking on the league’s best in Nardella. In their last matchup he went 15–21, which was actually his lowest number of wins in a game this summer. Figure that’s a massive Whipsnakes edge. If you take a look back through the Archers game, you’ll see that at times the Archers played well on defense and the Whips scored anyway, either due to the wizardry of Rambo or Williams doing things that just don’t seem all that stoppable. Even if the Redwoods play their usual excellent brand of defense, it’s tough to bet against the defending champs the rest of the way. 1 unit on the Whips -2.5.
The O/U: The Whips, on their own, are averaging over 14 goals per game. That includes dropping 13 goals on the Woods in the opener, a game where the Whips frankly didn’t look their best. The Redwoods highest goal total of the year is 11, which they’ve hit three times. It’s been a year to bet unders for sure, but lately if you want to take an over, a Whipsnakes game is the place to do it. I’ll throw .5 units on the over here.
PROPS:
If you’re new to this, props are short for proposition bets. The sportsbook allows us to place a bet on a specific event happening in a game, and offers odds on it happening. The Super Bowl famously has all sorts of prop bets, from something as simple as the coin toss outcome, to the straightforward wager on who scores the first touchdown, to something as wild as whether or not multiple safeties will be scored. A look at what’s being offered for Archers/Chaos:
· Will Manny to score a hat trick and Archers win (+240)
· Blaze Riorden has 20+ saves (+250)
· Jake Froccaro Scores a 2 and Chaos win (+450)
· Tom Schreiber hat trick and Archers win (+310)
· Grant Ament to score 5+ points (+200)
· Archers hit a 2 (+150)
· Archers win more faceoffs (-250)
· Chaos win more faceoffs (+190)
· Archers more ground balls (-200)
· Chaos more ground balls (+160)
And for Redwoods/Whipsnakes:
· Zed Williams and Matt Rambo both score a hat trick (+400)
· Mike Chanenchuk to Score 2+ Goals & Whipsnakes to Win (+125)
· Matt Kavanagh 3+ Points & Redwoods to Win (+290)
· Joe Nardella to Win 18+ Faceoffs and Score a Goal (+300)
· John Haus 3+ Points & Whipsnakes to Win (+200)
· Myles Jones to Score a 2-pt Goal (+300)
· Whipsnakes to win more faceoffs (-333)
· Redwoods to win more faceoffs (+250)
· Whips win more ground balls (-400)
· Woods win more ground balls (+300)
For the bet to pay out, the entire event has to happen. If Will Manny scores a hat trick and the Archers lose, then it’s a losing bet. Some of these seem incredibly safe (Archers win more faceoffs is one), but the value of the bet doesn’t make the risk worthwhile in my opinion. There are a few props I feel ok about.
Myles Jones to score a 2-pt goal (+300) — Myles has hit a two in back to back games. He’s only taken four 2 point shots all series, but they are always on goal. The Whips will surely do their best to step out and defend the two when it comes to Jones and Perkovic, but the lineup shuffle with Adams at attack and Kavanagh out of the box may create some opportunities out of the sub game or in transition. I think the +300 value on this makes it worth a .5 unit bet.
Tom Schreiber Hat Trick and Archers Win (+310) — I didn’t get to watch nearly as much of the first round as I wanted thanks to most of my home state being without power and internet. However, even with limited access, I could tell Playoff Tom was in full affect. Schreiber gets lost, somehow, out of the sub box way too often and gets a quality look out of it almost every time. I’m not sure how the Chaos will handle him with their personnel. If Rowlett is still out in the Brain Health Protocol, they’ll need to play an outstanding game just to slow the Archers attack. I think Schreiber could have a dynamite day, and I love this +310 value, so let’s get nuts and throw a full unit on this.
Joe Nardella to win 18 faceoffs and score a goal (+300) — Let’s get brave and really go deep on these props. Nardella’s lowest faceoff win total of the summer was 15 in the opener against the Woods. He’s winning an incredible 75% of his draws. Since I already said I like the over here, that means we can expect to have at least 26 faceoffs (one each quarter and 22 goals). If Joe plays to his average, that’s 19.5 faceoff wins, and we’re good on that part of the prop. Joe also had 3 goals in the regular season, including two against the Redwoods in the opener. He’s the best scoring threat of any faceoff specialist in the league, and teams met with the choice of sliding to him by leaving Rambo/Carlson/Williams on the faceoff fast break usually means Nardella gets a show slide, at most. The tricky part of this prop is Nardella getting the goal, but as Kyle Devitte would tell you, scared money don’t make money. .5 units on this prop.
To Recap:
.5 units on Chaos +2.5
1 unit on Chaos/Archers over 22.5
1 unit on Whips -2.5
.5 units on Whips/Woods over 21.5
.5 units on Myles Jones hitting a two pointer
1 unit on Schreiber hat trick and Archers win
.5 units on Joe Nardella 18+faceoff wins and a goal.
